Euler Hermes’ economists provide views and opinions on a variety of topics ranging from new global trade routes to emerging risks and opportunities. Our in-house experts analyze sectors, trends, regions and more to help companies grow their business confidently and strategically.
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EH Update: Current Economic Events
- The economy appears to be picking up momentum. Consumers finally put their income to use in May instead of saving it, adding a strong +0.9% to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a good sign for Q2 GDP.
- Core PCE inflation remained tame at only +1.2% y/y. The increased spending was due in part to a jump in consumer confidence, which increased a sharp +6.8 points to 101.4, above the 100 level associated with a strong economy.
- Consumer assessments of both future and current situations made strong gains. The housing market improved in May as new home sales gained +2.2%, existing home sales increased by +5.6% and pending home sales increased +0.9%.
- Even manufacturing showed some signs of life as new orders for non-defence capital goods (excluding aircraft) rose +0.4%. Q1 GDP was revised from -0.7% quarterly annualised to -0.2%, driven by increased estimates of consumption and investment, although business investment fell -0.3% for the quarter, the most in four years. EH expects GDP growth of +2.5% in 2015 and +2.7% in 2016.