Euler Hermes’ economists provide views and opinions on a variety of topics ranging from new global trade routes to emerging risks and opportunities. Our in-house experts analyze sectors, trends, regions and more to help companies grow their business confidently and strategically.
Through our worldwide economic research team, you can gain access to actionable economic intelligence, strategic forecasting, and market-specific risk analysis. Armed with this knowledge, you can confidently extend more credit to your customers and expand sales to new prospects.
EH Update: Current Economic Events
Recent data points to a marked improvement in current economic conditions in the second quarter compared to the dismal performance of the first quarter. Euler Hermes analysis shows that current economic events are impacting several key markets:
Job Market: The U.S. economy today has created an average of 230,000 jobs per month this year, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 6.1%, the lowest of the recovery. While the labor market is improving, there are still nagging details which are hindering more rapid growth. The labor force participation rate remains at a recovery low of 62.8%, and compared to indications from previous recessions, the economy should have created 5-10 million more jobs by now.
Manufacturing Sector: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM (Institute for Supply Management) indices are strongly indicating continued growth, particularly in the critical new orders area. Manufacturing, in general, has been rebounding this year with gains in employment for 11 consecutive months and output rising at a very strong annualized rate of 6.7% in the second quarter,, with particular strength in the automotive sector at 15.9%.
Consumption: Real disposable personal income has grown every month this year, and along with increases in consumer credit, it is expected that the pace of personal consumption will increase throughout the year. Although, the Fed will most likely finish quantitative easing (QE) by the end of 2014, monetary policy will remain highly accommodative with huge excess reserves and 0% interest rates through the middle of 2015.