Euler Hermes’ economists provide views and opinions on a variety of topics ranging from new global trade routes to emerging risks and opportunities. Our in-house experts analyze sectors, trends, regions and more to help companies grow their business confidently and strategically.
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EH Update: Current Economic Events
- Q2 GDP growth was revised upwards to +3.9% q/q annualised (from +3.7%), driven by non-residential business investment (+5.1%), residential investment (+9.4%) and robust consumption (+3.6%).
- Real personal consumption continued to grow in July and gained +0.4% m/m in August as disposable incomes increased by +0.3%, boding well for Q3. In addition, consumer confidence improved by another +1.8 points in September, after +10.8 in August.
- The present situation index improved +5.3 to 121.1, the highest in eight years. Meanwhile, consumer price inflation remains dormant at 0.3% y/y, while the core inflation rate remains at 1.3%.
- However, inventories increased in H1 at the fastest pace on record, likely tempering Q3 consumption gains. Housing data were mixed as new home sales gained +5.2% m/m in August, the highest level of the recovery, but prices of existing homes fell -0.2% m/m for the third consecutive month.
- Fed Chair Janet Yellen and two other Fed voting members gave speeches strongly suggesting a rate hike in 2015, which Euler Hermes expects in December.